“Two possibilities exist: either we are alone in the Universe or we are not. Both are equally terrifying.”
— Arthur C. Clarke

Looks like we might not be alone in the universe!

In case you missed it, scientists at the University of Cambridge's Institute of Astronomy last week discovered the first hints of an alien world being potentially inhabited. And it's not that far from Earth.

The planet in question is currently called K2-18 b, and it's only about 124 light-years away. Don't get me wrong, 124 light-years is still a pretty big hike, but to put it in perspective, our Milky Way galaxy is about 100,000 light-years across. In cosmic terms, that's like walking a few city blocks to visit your favorite coffee shop. The possibility of there being a planet that's teeming with life that is that close to us could be huge. Especially when you consider that we're just now detecting light and the potential biosignatures from over a century ago. How far could life or even a potential civilization evolve in that timeframe?

As a self-proclaimed “nerd,” I've watched, read, and played through endless sci-fi titles. While I tend to prefer the Star Trek adventures to those from the Star Wars franchise, there's a lot of other stuff out there that I've loved, too. Roswell was one of my favorites in high school. The OG, of course, but the CW's attempt at a reboot was decent from what I saw of it, too. Last year, my brother also finally got me to sit down and watch the remade Battlestar Galactica from 2004, and I completely understand now why it ranks on so many people's “best of” lists. I love it and can't believe I didn't watch it sooner. Joss Whedon's short-lived “space western” Firefly and its film continuation are big favorites in our home, too. I've also played and loved No Man's Sky, Stellaris, and The Outer Worlds, the latter of which I still need to complete one day.

These are all sagas that take place in space or adjacent to space and feature intelligent lifeforms from other worlds. Sometimes these lifeforms are allies, and sometimes they are adversaries. No matter which angle the story in question decides to take, it's given me a lot to question and seriously consider over the years. If and when we make first contact with an alien species, how exactly will things go? If they do exist, which seems incredibly likely now, why haven't they found us yet? There are a few popular theories, and I have thoughts.

Why should we be terrified?

I don't want to be accused of being a fear-monger or anything, but there are plenty of reasons to be terrified about the universe and what could be out there.

Before venturing further into popular theories, I think we have to first consider something called the “Fermi Paradox.” In 1950, an Italian-American physicist by the name of Enrico Fermi posed the question, “But where is everybody?” That question highlights a discrepancy: the idea that advanced intelligent life in other areas of the universe is highly likely and that it should therefore be extremely common for us to detect it. Yet... we haven't. Why is that?

The Great Filter

In 1996, economist and author Robin Hanson proposed the “Great Filter” theory as an explanation for the Fermi Paradox. The Great Filter suggests a hypothetical event or barrier that prevents intelligent life from advancing too far into the cosmos. It takes into account that, yes, intelligent life on other worlds is probable, but somewhere in their evolutionary advancement, something is making it improbable or maybe even fatal for them to achieve interstellar travel or communication. Perhaps advanced civilizations do arise on other planets, but are always doomed to destroy themselves.

The big question about the Great Filter is this: Is it behind us, or yet to come? Some argue that abiogenesis, the process where life emerges for the first time, could be where the Great Filter falls in the evolutionary chain. That would mean that we're past the hard part, and could explain that it's actually rare for any life beyond microbes to form elsewhere in the universe. We were the exception, and amazing discoveries could still be in our future!

But... what if the Great Filter is yet to come? It could mean that we still have yet to reach a step in the process that any other advanced civilization didn't survive. And we may not either.

The Dark Forest

Another theory, and perhaps the most chilling to me personally, is that of the “Dark Forest.” Even though the concept predates its publishing, this theory derives its name from the 2007 novel The Dark Forest by Liu Cixin (the second book in a series that inspired a popular show on Netflix). It suggests that perhaps there are many advanced, spacefaring civilizations in existence, but they are all silent and hostile. They maintain their cloak of obscurity because they are already aware of others and fear their destruction if detected.

Sci-fi author Greg Bear, describing this concept as a “vicious jungle” prior to its Dark Forest designation, wrote in his 1987 novel The Forge of God that the human species and its broadcasts into outer space are similar to a baby crying in a hostile forest filled with hungry wolves. “We've been sitting in our tree chirping like foolish birds for over a century now, wondering why no other birds answered. The galactic skies are full of hawks, that's why,” one character explains in the novel.

Similar to the Dark Forest theory is the “Berserker Hypothesis,” also known as the “deadly probes scenario.” I tend to find this hypothesis considerably more unlikely than the Dark Forest theory above, but it does still provide an entirely compatible explanation for the Fermi Paradox. The Berserker Hypothesis, which is named after Fred Saberhagen's Berserker novel series, suggests that we have yet to detect intelligent life elsewhere in the universe because it has all been or is currently being systematically destroyed by a series of lethal, self-replicating probes. Could it just be a matter of time before Earth is visited by such a probe?

A few things in my mind when thinking about malicious machinery are not just the origins of the Cylons and their nefarious “plan” for humanity in Battlestar Galactica, but also the emergence and current prevalence we are seeing with AI and robotics here in real life. Could the creation of such technology lead us to eventual ruin? Will ChatGPT or Copilot one day take over Earth?

Tell me those aren't some terrifying explanations for the Fermi Paradox!

The Zoo Hypothesis

Another one of the many explanations for the Fermi Paradox is the “Zoo Hypothesis.” While not quite as terrifying as the Dark Forest, it's still a doozy that could have many different outcomes. This one suggests that extraterrestrial life may be common and is already very aware of us here on Earth. They have already observed us and are intentionally avoiding contact. As if the entire planet is a large wildlife preserve or zoo for them.

There could be a few different explanations. For example, in the fictional future that Star Trek inhabits, the good guys in Starfleet are supposed to abide by a rule they call the “Prime Directive.” This prevents them from prematurely interfering with the natural evolution and development of alien civilizations. The aim is to prevent any unprepared race from being introduced to advanced technology, knowledge, or values before they are ready. Typically, once a civilization has demonstrated its ability to achieve faster-than-light travel or subspace communications, they were deemed ready to make “first contact” with Starfleet. The franchise's best feature film (in my humble opinion, of course) is 1996's Star Trek: First Contact, which depicts the iconic crew of the Starship Enterprise-E travelling back in time to prevent their cybernetically-enhanced nemesis, the Borg, from halting humanity's historic first warp-capable flight—an event that eventually leads to first contact between humanity and their famed allies, the Vulcans.

As you have probably surmised by now, the Zoo Hypothesis also has some darker applications. For example, a variant of the hypothesis includes one called the “Laboratory Hypothesis,” which was developed by former MIT Haystack Observatory scientist John Allen Ball. That variant posits that humanity is being actively subjected to experiments and that our planet is serving as one single laboratory. It's totally possible in this scenario that the experiments are also for the greater good of our species, but honestly, the idea just makes us sound like a bunch of lab mice, doesn't it?

But there's also hope!

There are obviously a lot of reasons why we should be terrified of the existence of alien life. And none of the aforementioned theories even have to do with aliens just showing up and immediately deciding to exterminate us, Independence Day-style. Think too long and hard about these ideas, and you've definitely entered into nightmare fuel territory.

But listen—hope springs eternal and all that. So I also want to share some solid reasons why the discovery of intelligent life in the cosmos could actually be really great news. Assuming any advanced civilization were to make contact tomorrow and extend their hands (or tentacles??? 🤷) in friendship, we could possibly benefit from all of the following:

• Advanced Knowledge!
  Even a tiny glimpse at alien science could propel us hundreds or thousands of years ahead of where we currently are in our own scientific and technological communities. I'm talking interstellar travel, medical miracles, clean energy, and even solutions to climate change, poverty, and world hunger. The possibilities would be endless.
• Paradigm Shifts!
  Science and technology wouldn't be the only areas of our society to be touched by alien life. Discovering proof that we're not alone in the universe would lead to colossal changes both psychologically and spiritually. How would world religions integrate this new knowledge into their belief systems? Would humanity embrace a sense of comfort knowing we're no longer isolated?
• Galactic Peace!
  If an advanced alien race chooses to make contact with Earth, it stands to reason that they may also have discovered the key to overcoming violence and greed themselves. They could provide us with the ability to do the same.
• Unified Earth!
  Once we're presented with undeniable evidence that something bigger than us really exists, maybe we could finally push ourselves to unite as one. And then maybe the idea of a United Federation of Planets isn't too kooky anymore.
• Cultural Evolution!
  Being influenced by a foreign culture could conceivably revolutionize our own. Language, art, music, ethics, and the understanding of life as we know it could change overnight.

Personally, I'm thrilled to learn more about K2-18 b as scientists continue their investigation. You could probably say that I'm cautiously optimistic about what we could find. Described as an “ocean planet,” it seems pretty likely that any organisms living there are probably microbes, or what we might consider marine life at best. But there could also be forms of intelligent life there that we just can't imagine yet.

Let's just hope they keep the space rays at home!